Although the 76ers’ “trust the process” plan shined a light on teams deliberately losing games to improve their draft position (aka tanking) they were far from the first to try this strategy. In 1984 the Houston Rockets & Chicago Bulls were accused of dumping games at the end of the season to try to improve their chances of drafting Hakeem Olajuwon. Other teams may have had a point, the Rockets ended their season on a (3-14) run, the Bulls ended on a (1-14) run themselves… That season the rules were that the bottom two teams would do a coin flip to determine who drafted 1st overall. A change was needed.
David Stern in his 2nd season as NBA commissioner, introduced the lottery in 1985. The lottery system would evolve overtime to further dissuade teams from tanking, but the current system may have a problem.
THURSDAY, MAY 15TH 2025. 3PM EST. CHICAGO, ILL.
That's the when & where for the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. The lottery will set in stone the order for the first 14 picks of a possible franchise altering draft. Before the drawn out ESPN special, the actual lottery takes place in a separate room that is locked down (with a media blackout) until the results are revealed on the network. Select media, NBA officials, & lottery team reps are joined by an accountant from Ernst & Young. Their job will be to oversee the lottery, place the results in sealed envelopes, & deliver them to the tv studio. That Ernst & Young rep is the only person outside of the locked down room that knows the lottery's results until the results go public.
BREAKING DOWN THE LOTTERY
Drawings are done only for the FIRST 4 PICKS. The 14 non-playoff teams are each given a % of lottery odds determined by where they finished the season with the worst teams receiving the best odds.
14 ping pong balls (numbered 1-14) are placed into a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations made up from choosing 4 of those 14 ping pong balls. 1,000 of these combinations are used, & teams are assigned combinations. Teams with higher %s get more of these assigned combinations, giving them a better chance at winning. Each ball selection is broken up by at least 10 seconds of mixing (20 seconds is after the 1st ball drawing). The team assigned the combination of the 1st (4) numbers chosen gets the 1st overall pick. This process is done again for picks 2-4. Following that, it's all done by W/L record.
For example: before the lottery one of the Brooklyn Nets’ assigned combinations of numbers are: 4309. If that combination comes out (same #’s, same order) the Nets win the 1st overall pick. If another Nets combination comes up for picks 2-4, the process restarts until another team’s combination comes out.
THE GAMBLE.
Remember how teams have given odds of getting certain draft picks depending on their record? Previous draft systems saw the team with the worst record have a 25% chance of winning, falling back to 4th at worst, & the lotto drew only for 3 picks. The current system gives the bottom 3 teams equal odds for picks 1-4, the bottom team can fall back to 5th, & now there are 4 picks drawn for.
So let’s say the Nets finish with the worst record here are their chances at: 1st (13%) 2nd (13.4%) 3rd (12.7%) 4th (12%) 5th (47.9% !!!!). That’s only a 40% chance you’ll make it in the top 3.
A matter a fact the last team with the worst record to win the lottery were the Suns in 2018. Ouch. Teams with the worst record have drafted: 5,5,3,2,2,3 in the past 6 drafts. Teams with the 2nd worst record drafted: 2,4,1,1,5,5. Having the worst record you have almost a 50% chance at hitting 5th overall, if your 2nd worst 5th overall is (27.8%) & 6th overall is (20%). It’s an interesting corelation seeing the 2nd worst team getting the 1st overall pick 2x in that time frame. Does it pay to be the worst? Im not sure but in a loaded draft like this one there are several herald players that even if the Nets do drop to 3rd or 4th, they’ll most likely have a great player waiting for them.
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Pete is host of “Nets Fans You Know: A Brooklyn Nets Podcast”. Each episode he is joined by guests from around the Nets & NBA from players, media personalities, beat writers, analytic analysts, to other content creators.
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