The Euro 2024 tournament kicks off tomorrow in Munich with the host nation Germany taking on Scotland. Over the next twelve days we will see thirty-six matches take place. Twenty-four teams will fight for the sixteen spots in the knock-out stage. With our proud partners Betalytic's launching their new Euro's sports betting software we have to talk about some of our favorite bets for the opening twelve matches. So here they are, and let's get profitable!
Euro 2024 Group A
Germany -0.5 vs. Scotland + Under 3.5 Goals -105
I know reading the above may sound like a gimmicky play, but bear with us on this one. Let's talk about the projections Betalytics is telling us, firstly that Germany are gonna win their opener in front of the fans. Their xGoals has it at 1.9-0.73 in favor of Germany. This checks out knowing how strong both teams are defensively. This also means they are projecting three goals or less, so the under 3.5 provides some great value. At near plus money, I think this is the route to go on Friday.
Group B
Spain ML vs. Croatia -115
I recently spoke about this game on my podcast (the link to that episode is here). Spain is the best squad in this group, they should have the majority of possession in this matchup. Given their recent history in big tournaments, Croatia will get some sharp money here. But to me, their time has passed, as Modric will struggle to even play a ninety-minute match at this juncture of his career. Betalytics data tells us this is a B-grade play with a 4.19 edge, so we are riding on this one.
Group C
England ML vs. Serbia + Denmark ML vs. Slovenia +155
There is some cause for concern given England's recent friendly loss to Iceland, but not on my end. The "It's Coming Home" squad was not in full force, but they are still the favorites to win this group and the entire tournament. The xGoals is currently 1.5-0.68 in favor of England, so not concerned about that game. This bet falls on what Denmark team shows up. There is plenty of quality on this side, and scoring options up front as well. At an xG of 1.33-0.7 for Denmark, I am expecting a one-goal game here, hopefully in favor of Denmark after ninety minutes.
Group D
Poland vs. Netherlands Under 2.5 -125
This play boils down to the fact that Poland will not have much offensively in this game. Outside of Lewandowski, they do not have much attacking-wise. That being said Poland's defense is quite strong, they have not given up more than a single goal in a competitive match since September of last year. Netherlands is the same, with Van Dijik at the back breaking through will not be easy. This game feels like a 1-1 or 2-0 at best here, so loving these odds for a low-scoring game.
Group E
Belgium ML vs. Slovakia + Romelu Lukaku To Score +120
The xGoals of 1.97-0.77 in favor of Belgium should not be surprising. This has less to do with liking Belgium and more with having no faith in Slovakia. The groups could not have worked better for a slightly above-average Belgium side. Given the lack of competition, they will not struggle to score in this group, which means Lukaku will feast. Outside of de Bruyne, they do not have a lot of other scoring threats, so I think he opens up group play with a goal. Not only that, but Belgium will win comfortably.
Group F
Turkey ML vs. Georgia -135
A B- graded play here with an above 60% chance of winning according to Betalytics. Georgia are clearly the weakest team in this group, this will be made evident in this matchup. Not much more to say then that, bet the Turkish to pick up three points on June 18th.
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