Full disclosure, outside of the Spain and Turkey results we had some painful results in the opening round of matches in the group stage. Denmark drew despite being the better-quality side. Scotland was never competitive in the tournament's opening match. Then to top it off Romelu Lukaku decided to have the offside presence of Emmanuel Adebayor as Belgium lost their opener. That was last week though, this is this week which means plenty of value to be found on the Euro 2024 betting front. With the power of Hedge's mind and Betalytics software, we will be a force to be reckoned with. We are officially Competitive Hedge: The xG Simpleton. So here are our bets and let's get profitable!
Euro 2024 Group A
Scotland vs. Switzerland Under 2.5 Goals
Do not overreact to the 5-1 and 3-1 match results these two were a part of in the opener. Yes, the Swiss xG numbers played how they should have, but look at Scotland's xG result. In spite of being dominated from the jump by Germany, they still only created enough where under 2.5 goals were in play. The strength of Scotland is on the back end and I believe that will be on full display in this game. The possession will still be in the Swiss favor, but Scotland will actually create the occasional chance or two. Expect a 1-1 draw, or at worst, a 2-0 Switzerland victory.
Group B
Spain vs. Italy Both Teams To Score No -115
We got the two results we were expecting out of the opening games of Group B. The Spanish dominated an aging Croatia side from the jump and outside of an early throw-in blunder Italy did the same with Albania. Now this is a plus-money play to take the over in this matchup, so I am loving the value here. Morata impressed me a lot up front for the Spanish, so I would play him on the player prop front to score in this matchup as well. Outside of that though the Italians do not have quality up front. I know the xGoals of 1.48-1.06 according to Betalytics, but I think only Spain scores here.
Group C
Slovenia Double Chance vs. Serbia -115
Seeing a projection of an under and both teams to score according to Betalytics, but I like this play for a few reasons. I think we may be discrediting Slovenia's quality a bit after they took a point off the Danish. Yes, they only had 32% of possession, but their counter-attacking play impressed me quite a bit. With Oblak in goal as well I think Slovenia proves to be a tough matchup once again, this time for a Serbian side that did not generate much against England. Call me Hedge the Genie cause I see a point or three in the Slovenian's future.
Group D
Austria ML vs. Poland -105
The Austrians generated more offense then I expected against one of the tournament favorites in France. The fact they came away with no points, much like Poland did against the Dutch, was tough to see. This is the get right spot for a team that I think has upset potential once we hit the knockout stage, but they have to collect three points here. If you want to get spicy a Sabitzer goal at +285 could be an exciting one to monitor a few days out from the game. Regardless I will take country more known for skiing to produce three points in this group stage game.
Group E
Romelu Lukaku To Score vs. Romania -115
I was too scared to take anything on the match front for any team in this group so we are going full chalkboard here. Lukaku did find the back of the net twice, but both called back thanks to the buzzkillington known as VAR. A striker like Romelu though just finds ways to score goals, especially in spots where they have to have one. The true question here is was Romania actually underrated or did we overvalue the Ukranian squad a bit? Given I am not sure which it is I still believe Belgium will have enough possession to create chances and Lukaku will pot one for them in a must win spot.
Group F
Czech Republic ML vs. Georgia -145
I want to believe so badly that Georgia was just unlucky in their opener. That a squad that produced so many chances can do it again vs. the Czechs. But when Betalytics tells you a play has a 60.9% chance of hitting and that Georgia is a near full xG less then I have to listen to them. They have been money in this tournament and it took an extra time goal for Portugal to fall in their opener. I think we see them bounce back, scoring multiple goals here and putting the Czech Republic back on track to qualify from Group F. A loss here means their tournament is all but over with another match to go.
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